Analysts at Evercore ISI predict that California’s recent move to ban sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035 could push the U.S.’s share of electric vehicles to between 17% and 20% as early as 2025.
California accounts for some 9% of U.S. new-car sales and about 38% of U.S. new-electric-vehicle sales, they said.
The state put its rules in place earlier this week, after Gov. Gavin Newsom set it as a goal and asked state officials to work on the regulations in December 2020.
“We see U.S. (EV) penetration going from (about 8%) to 17-20% in ’25,” then 35% in 2030 and 75% by 2035, the Evercore ISI analysts said.
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Earlier this month, the California New Car Dealer’s Association estimated that the state’s electric-vehicle market share reached 15.1% in first half of the year, compared with 9.5% in the first half of 2021.
According to Edmunds.com data, electric vehicles’ market share nationally rose to nearly 6% in the same period, from 2.7% in the first half of 2021.
The California rules being implemented call for a tiered approach to reach 35% of electric vehicles by 2026 and so on until 100% by 2035.
The regulations apply only to new vehicles, and Californians will be able to drive existing gas-powered cars and buy and sell used vehicles running on gas. It is the first move in the U.S. to ban ICE vehicles.
California and more than a dozen states, mostly in the Northeast, that follow its lead have auto emissions standards that are stricter than federal mandates, and make up a significant part of the U.S. auto market.
California and the states that historically have followed California regulations comprise between 25% and 33% of all U.S. auto sales, the Evercore ISI analysts said.
General Motors Co.
unveiled its own electric-vehicle goals in October, and Ford Motor Co.
in March announced a major reorganization solely to focus on electric vehicles.
in July said it saw potential for a “record breaking” second half of the year for electric-vehicle sales.